A Prediction Tournament Paradox
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
A Prediction Tournament Paradox
In a prediction tournament, contestants “forecast” by asserting a numerical probability for each of (say) 100 future real-world events. The scoring system is designed so that (regardless of the unknown true probabilities) more accurate forecasters will likely score better. This is true for one-on-one comparisons between contestants. But consider a realistic-size tournament with many contestants...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The American Statistician
سال: 2019
ISSN: 0003-1305,1537-2731
DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2019.1604430